In the carrier world:

I think we all see that the 5G build is winding down and that 6G may or may not happen in the next 5 years. While 2025 will maintain, maybe be a bit better than 2024, it is going to become business as usual. There were winners and losers, but the bottom line is the network is nearly built out.

Then we have to dismantle 3G and 4G, maybe even 2G networks lingering because of some IoT lawsuits. However, the one thing we can all agree on is that the work is slowing and will eventually be left for the few that survive. 

To survive, you have to adapt. Things are changing, and the models the carriers will use for the next few years will be slightly different. The writing is on the wall.

Don’t get me wrong, the carriers will continue to add sites, upgrade, and make improvements. They have done a great job so far, at least in the USA. The throughput is great, the quality of experience is way better than it was 5 years ago, and there are more services available than ever before. 

I believe app developers should be able to capitalize if they can be creative. We’re always looking for the next big thing.

The carriers are run by very smart business people, so they will do what’s best for the company and the investors. It’s been working so far. They feed the industry with their funding. It’s what keeps us alive when you think about it.

I do think that mobile service has become a commodity and that the carriers may have to accept that they are just a pipe and not an enhanced service unit. I believe they want to deliver more services. They do seem to be course correcting by getting out of the advertising business. 

I also believe that FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) is beginning to take off for all the carriers. They have this and they are also starting to invest in FTTP (Fiber to the Premises). This is their future vision. They can offer the connection and not worry about any broadcast services. That’s where Verizon and AT&T tried to compete directly with cable. I am hoping T-Mobile realizes that they just need internet access, let Amazon Prime, Netflix, and Xfinity offer services with their apps. 

OK, I know the tower climbers and related site workers are hoping to make more money, but the reality is this payscale will continue to drop. Sorry but carriers are setting the payscale, not the workforce. Margin begins to creep away from the tower workers and back into the pockets of the large corporations.. 

Using AI in telecom

Using AI services will help eliminate a lot of costs, but not in the way you think. It’s going to reduce the need for offshore support. We’re moving to an onshore model where AI replaces all those remote NOC workers that may be based in India or Pakistan. Those days are coming to an end. 

As telecom services evolve, we will be looking to offload repetitive services to AI that don’t need to be at the site or touch the tower. We will always need people at the site to do the work; they are a necessity for a very long time to come. 

Unfortunately for the people at the site, wages will continue to drop as the work is pushed down again, like when turf models started and the work continued to decline. 

C’est la vie.

To be blunt, it’s not a great time to get into wireless telecom unless you have a game-changing service that can bypass the OEMs. I can imagine you think you do, but entry into the carrier world is much harder than you think. 

As for the AI wave, it will probably enter into large telecoms via OEMs and existing contractors. That way, they can enhance and improve existing services. It’s the way that it’s been done for quite some time. 

Private LTE and 5G:

Oh, the dream of private carrier-grade networks! It’s something the OEMs are dreaming that will take off. Unfortunately, the cost to the end user makes it prohibitive for most enterprise groups. Why bother with private when Wi-Fi 7 and the additional spectrum allocated by the FCC made it so much better? 

It’s the one thing that is working against PLTE and P5G. The movement is slow at best. Growth in this sector is slow and painful. Education has been a challenge along with budgets.

Let’s face it, P5G will be use-case driven. It’s not going to be deployed in place of Wi-Fi, but alongside Wi-Fi for a specific use case. The exception may be outdoor coverage where PLTE and P5G radios have better coverage.

The other issue is the limitations of CBRS spectrum. While it’s a great spectrum, it can’t pass the bandwidth that Wi-Fi or even Starlink can at this time. 

Who has use cases? Well, the military for one. They are big into the private network model mostly for security reasons. They really need to be secure, and they just don’t see Wi-Fi being as secure.

Who else? Many other businesses that have a need for dedicated and secure networks. I would like to say manufacturing because they have a specific need and workload. They could use Wi-Fi now that the additional 6GHz spectrum has been released if they know how to add the additional security and slice up the spectrum to be dedicated for the manufacturing tools. That’s the key because a shared network can run into issues with security and loading. Why do you think network slicing became a thing? It’s because they can dedicate the network for a specific use case.

Excluding venues like stadiums where the carriers still invest a ton of money in DAS and less and less in CBRS models, I would think there P5G would have a solid dedicated use case as its own network. You need this when you have more than 10,000 users sucking up all the Wi-Fi. Whether it’s for IoT or talking or data, you need dedicated and secure network connections.   

Now, for outdoor coverage, it makes sense if your budget allows for it to happen. School districts did their own networks when the grant money was there because most carriers just rake them over the coals for the monthly fees. Unfortunately, P5G will also have ongoing fees with maintenance, upgrades, and licensing. Sorry, but you can’t get away from the ongoing OPEX.

While we all want it to gain traction, there is no killer use case that I have seen where P5G can be a solid replacement for Wi-Fi indoors. 

Data Centers, Cloud, Edge, and Aggregation:

If this is your specialty or if you can manage a site build, then maybe this is the next thing you want to get in on. Data centers are being built everywhere, but they have to serve a purpose or be in a strategic location. It’s not something you drop in and wait for the people to bang on your door.

That’s why so many of these data centers are near larger populations and business areas. The Cloud is critical, and the Edge is becoming more and more critical.

The Cloud data centers are usually a good size, while the Edge data centers are smaller and very close to the end user. 

Unfortunately for Edge data centers, they can be replaced by an end user with space that doesn’t want to outsource the service. 

The good news for Edge is that more and more end users want to outsource more and more services because salaries and upfront costs are prohibitive. Also, they can scale up or down very quickly. Edge data centers won’t make near the income that the Cloud data centers do, but they will be cheaper and could serve a purpose. They are also small and usually redundant. 

As for telecom, they need these services, but the reality is the hyperscalers, like Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon, will continue to market these services as well as use them internally. That is not going to change anytime soon. They are the big boys in today’s world, and I don’t see them stepping aside for years to come. It will happen, just not in the next 10 years or so. 

Spectrum and the FCC;

Unfortunately, the carriers won’t need new spectrum for some time. While they may want to get it to prepare for the future, the reality is T-Mobile and Verizon have more than enough to take care of mobile and most fixed wireless customers for a few years. 

It looks like the 7.125 – 8.400 GHz band will be next, at least it’s on the roadmap for 6G. If and when we need it. So far it looks like the carriers are gaining spectrum from US Cellular. 

The future of DISH will play a role in this. They seem to be struggling for various reasons. I am hoping they turn it around and become a player, but if they can’t, the government will have to decide what they can do, like divest or sell to another company willing to invest in a fourth carrier. It may not be easy because from what I have seen, the hyperscalers don’t have any appetite for building a network like that. 

Personally, for FWA I was hoping we could have 12GHz play a role terrestrially. I guess that will take years after the FCC releases the 7GHz spectrum unless DISH or Spacelink want to build a coexisting terrestrial network to supplement their space network. 

We shall see.

The one thing I am hearing is that mmWave is finally becoming more and more use-specific. I don’t think we’ll see the mass deployments we saw earlier. Especially from Verizon, but we’ll have to wait and see. They put so much money into it so far that doing more seems crazy. With all of that said, it all depends on who is leading it inside Vz because as we have seen in the past, that is more important than getting the bigger bang for your buck.

Towers, Rooftops, and Small Cells;

I believe that towers will continue to be upgraded and expanded. It looks like we may have to improve coverage and continue to densify. That is not going to change. It’s just going to be a slow roll after 2025.

Rooftops will continue to become key sites for 5G and eventually 6G. The issue will be permitting and environmental issues that the cities lay on carriers. They may become less and less relevant as small cells deploy on poles. However, poles have a lot of drawbacks.

Small cells on poles, on the other hand, will continue to roll out. They solve a lot of fill issues. The downside is that they are too freaking expensive to add power and backhaul to. That is a factor holding back many of the carriers. If they can go on a rooftop with existing equipment and get the same bang for their buck, then why invest in 20 or 30 smaller poles all around that need their own backhaul and power? Oh, by the way, today’s small cells are macro radios with fiber interfaces that feed back to a remote baseband controller. So, lose the BBU but pretty much a macro site with less spectrum than a full tower or rooftop may have.

I guess each carrier has their preference based on spectrum, budgets, and strategy.

Fiber Across America;

Here is something that even TMO is doing today. All the carriers appear to be rolling out fiber to connect directly with the cable companies. This is amazing because they are putting more money into FTTP, whereas FWA seems more economical.

I guess I get it because once you connect with FTTP, you have that customer for a very long time. Look at the cable companies and the retention they’ve had with the Baby Boomers; it’s been a decades-long relationship. Unfortunately for them, TV is less and less important. Also, mobility is high on all the following generations. 

I don’t see the trend stopping as the Feds push fiber connectivity across America.

Power, Electrical, and real changes;

The huge factor is power. Everything needs power.

• Macro sites,
• Small Cell sites,
• Rooftops,
• Datacenters,
• Edge centers,
• Everything!!

The one thing we all need is power. Oh, green power won’t feed the need. It seems like we have to go back to nuclear. I am a fan of the new nuclear power plants. They are safe and efficient. To all people who are fighting nuclear because of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island (TMI), things have come a long way. It’s way better than it was decades ago.

It’s just that we fear it and no one wants it in their backyard. I get it, but it’s coming. It has to. If for no other reason, China is already doing it and doing it well. We are already behind because of old fears and politics. 

If you think there have been no advances, then my question to you would be, “Do you still use a large black phone in your home, or do you carry a smartphone in your pocket?” Wake up, genius. 

I am not saying things can’t go wrong, but it’s safer and more efficient. It’s the key to energy independence and reliability.  We need to move ahead here, and I mean right quick!

As AI sucks down more power along with the datacenter expansion, things have to get quicker and better. I would love to see the day when companies can add their own power generators that are nuclear and free of wires coming from miles away. Sure, the local municipalities will still get all their permitting money, and the electricians will still make their money, but the power company will not be burdened with this.

Broadband Grants – Government Funding Dependency;

Oh, the broadband grants. How we all love those grants. The thing is, they tend to make us go all in, hoping we get something. Unfortunately, it’s usually a bigger company that wins lately. So if I were you, I would not hold my breath. After all, how many BEAD funds were released last year?

I heard that Nevada, Louisiana, and Delaware released it to some companies, but it doesn’t appear they did anything yet. I am not sure if they have the cash or not. It just takes too long when they use this process. 

My point is it took 4 years to get it to the deployment teams, and I don’t even know if they have the cash yet. I assume nothing has been deployed using these funds. That leads me to ask, when will something be done and when will the first customer be served?

While these programs are well-intentioned, they often lead to wasted time and effort, not to mention more debt in the industry. That’s why larger companies can afford to spend time on this; they can absorb the costs. Smaller companies risk it all, and if they don’t get it, they go under. I don’t see that as a good thing, but hey, that’s just me.

Just remember when you buy into this thing, it might be more than you can chew. It pays to let the larger companies do the upfront work, then maybe work under them at what you’re good at, deployment.